Spreading Out

Great article here by Zeynep about the pandemic.

Some conclusions (some go beyond exactly what she said in the piece):

1. Sweden is not a great example of anything either way.

2. The virus is overdispersed, meaning its spread is stochastic, making it hard to model and predict.

3. Cluster-busting and backward tracing are the way to contain the virus (absent vaccines).

4. Lockdowns donโ€™t work well after a certain point of spread and many countries most successful at controlling Covid had no or little lockdown.

Most of the West, and the US in particular, took the worst part of every approach because our elites are incompetent and our societal institutions are sclerotic. Other than it greatly helping the plutes, I guess this is why the (mostly lib) worship of lockdown gestated: it seemed to be the only tool available, though it was not a particularly effective one.