I don't know. It's not impossible but to me, it looks less likely than it did in early January—more data. Cases down, vaccinations up, seasonality in our favor. I support sensible precautions (go outdoors! wear masks indoors!) & vaccinating as fast we can. https://t.co/TAHDOC9aSh

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021

The more I think about it, the more I think a spring/summer third wave is very, very unlikely, despite all the alarmism I’ve been seeing about the Covid variants lately. Vaccination is ramping fine, seasonality is with us, and 30%+ of Americans have already had Covid.

All this equals no third wave.