How big of a wave of #COVID19 do we expect in the US from the Delta variant? Here I describe a simple approach to this question and attempt a rough back-of-the-envelop estimate. 1/16

— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) June 30, 2021

Ha. No. This is going to be way wrong.

I’d estimate around 3 million will end up being infected with Delta in the US. Not more than 5 million.