Probabilities do not act like predictions.
Probabilities are useless for predicting single events.
Probabilities will never be predictions.
Stop trying to apply probabilities to futuring. pic.twitter.com/KkMyydONNy

— Milena Rodban (@MilenaRodban) October 27, 2021

This is what I was getting at in this post where I was arguing against probability as most people use it and understand it. I think in some ways the Medieval thinkers and prior had a better understanding of probability than we did — in that, they really didn’t at all so did not misapply it as we do constantly.