My prediction is that Omicron is going to be 50-80% less severe than Delta in symptoms/IFR, etc.

People for some reason believe that Covid can become infinitely more transmissible and infinitely more deadly at the same time. While you’ve heard a lot of foofaraw from epidemiologists about how it’s perfectly possible for a virus to evolve to be more deadly and more transmissible (and they are right), they have also overstated their case quite a lot to avoid giving people hope (I guess?).

The reality is that viruses have no plan and aren’t doing anything for our benefit. This includes the fact that they don’t get more deadly just to spite us. Again: no plan. SARS2 in my opinion was already nearing its co-attractor for transmissibility vs. severity, so it would have to trade off one for the other. It appears to have traded off severity in Omicron.

Evidence should firm up over the next few weeks but I betcha I will be right.