Also, if you were just looking to the market to forecast this for you, you were similarly mislead. Sentiment failed across the board on this one. Black swan's gonna black swan. https://t.co/9ObrLmuuAX

— jonstokes(\.com|\.eth) (@jonst0kes) February 25, 2022

Not a Black Swan event. Putin and Russia were telegraphing their moves well in advance. I put a 90% probability on invasion before it occurred. I’m not some mega-genius; I can just see the obvious.

You didn’t even need to know anything about Russian internal politics or Putin. Just had to look at the structure and nature of the military build-up. It did not look like an exercise. When someone sends costly signals, believe them. What Russia was doing with their military beforehand was what you do if you intend to lay the hurt down on someone very soon.