The Russian invasion is entering its dangerous phase for us now. Russia is realizing it can’t win as it hoped, there is much aid pouring in from around the world to Ukraine, much of it lethal, and sanctions are biting hard.

If the conflict widens into a Russia-NATO war it’ll happen in the next 2-3 weeks. If it doesn’t happen by that time, it probably never will.

I’d give this widened conflict about a 20% chance of occurring. Way too high.