What rhetoric Putin used in his speech is immaterial. If he didn’t declare war, or a general mobilisation, that’s what important. Without concrete steps to build a new force, Russia can’t fight a long war, and the clock starts ticking on the failure of their army in Ukraine

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 9, 2022

Aye. No general mobilization means Russia will just slowly lose. Unlike what the Twitter chattering class poser Ian Welsh types think, screeching random rhetoric on Twitter doesn’t get shit done in the real world where equipment must be moved, fuel must be supplied, soldiers must be trained and replaced/allowed to rest, food must be trucked in. etc.

They have no fucking idea what any of that takes. None. Russia does not have a lot of options here unless Putin turns into Voldemort and magics some stuff into existence. Yes, Russia can still fairly effectively destroy a lot of Ukraine (even absent nukes). But that won’t give them victory, and they still might be completely tossed out of the country, losing tens of billions of dollars and 100,000+ troops.