As expected, China won't go to war over Pelosi's visit (and LOL at all the dorks who thought they would).

But this pattern of chest-thumping also suggests that when the attack actually does come, it'll start with a blockade… https://t.co/AoxjGZ4aQY

— Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 (@Noahpinion) August 2, 2022

Yeah. Absolute doofuses.

And agreed, a naval blockade with missile/naval artillery attacks on the island will be what happens. That’s the natural way to deal with a relatively-small island like Taiwan. An immediate amphibious invasion makes zero sense. Blockade, see what resistance you get from other players, then invasion in 3-6 months when interest wanes and Taiwan starts running out of food.

That’s most likely what’ll happen because that’s just the play.