I suspect if Russia does use a nuke in Ukraine that NATO (really mostly the US) will use conventional forces to wipe the Russian army off the map there. Anyway, that’s what I’d do. Retaliating with nuclear weapons would mean the end of the world but breaking the nuclear taboo cannot be allowed to stand either.

No matter what clowns like Ian Welsh believe, the Russian army is not great and a war to destroy it on the ground in Ukraine would be over in 1-2 months. Note I do fucking not mean invading Russia, which would be an insane and foolish thing to do. All I mean is annihilating the Russian forces on the ground where they’ve invaded.

I give Russian nuke use in Ukraine about 5% odds, but if that does occur, a conventional NATO/US response an 80% chance of happening.

Let’s hope none of these things transpire. But the risk is high, too high.