This may be of some relevance to contemporary policy debates. pic.twitter.com/HUhO9rHytm
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) March 3, 2025
Should be a bit higher. And we’re going the opposite direction.
Unfortunately, partially due to that and the uncertainly around the government being destroyed, a recession is baked in, Great Recession II is extremely likely and depression chance is about 50/50 now. If Social Security checks are disrupted for more than a month, depression chance is 90%.