Russia’s latest big Ukraine offensive gains next to nothing, again

Ian Welsh: WINNING! OMG I LOVE PUTIN!

Everyone else: Seems not that great to sacrifice 500+ people for every dozen meters gained. That’s not really sustainable.

More seriously, Russia’s strategic position is incredibly weak and worsening as the war goes on. Time used to be on Putin’s side but as Europe seems to be waking up to the peril a bit, it no longer is.

At the pace of the past 30 days, seizing what remains of the four regions Mr Putin already claims—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia—would take until June 2030. (For Russia to occupy all of Ukraine would require a further 103 years.)

Russia will never occupy all of Ukraine because the attacker’s problem is that as the lines get smaller, they also get easier to defend. (This is due to having less distance to spread personnel and war materiel over.) Ukraine will not give up the fight easily as they know a genocide will occur if they do, so the war will grind on 2-3 more years until Russia agrees to a cease-fire and then tries again in 7-10 years.

That’s my best guess, anyway.