A major roadblock in defining the predictability limits for complex technosocial systems is their sensitivity & dependence on social-adaptive behavior. The behavior of the system when in a stationary state is irrelevant for anticipating its behavior when put under severe stress. https://t.co/UVzrhZw2y7

— Nils Gilman (@nils_gilman) March 28, 2020

This guy knows what he’s talking about. Most “experts” do not. If we restart the economy by the end of May, we’ll most likely be ok. Mid-May would be safer.

Past that, it’s possible societal/civilizational collapse — in the US at least. After July or thereabouts, there will be no restart possible. In that scenario, I’d estimate 2-7 year deaths in the 20-40 million range. Much more than that if the collapse sparks any wars. People are comparing what will occur to the Great Depression. However, that’ll seem mild compared to a complete collapse that’ll result from this economic halt, which is not what occurred then. The past only rhymes and is not a map to the future.

If you think I am exaggerating, take your chances. You’ll see.