Goldman Sachs abandons its bearish near-term view on stocks, says the bottom is in.

Goldman Sachs is probably wrong, though I only have about 60% confidence in this. This depends on if we go into a depression, or a mega-depression, which in turn depends on how soon we can re-open the economy.

If “just” a depression, stocks have probably already bottomed. If mega-depression, then they’ll go about 50% below where they are now.

Just too many unknowns, although there likely aren’t many unknown unknowns. All the paths are bad, and we’re going to walk at least one of them.