The actual order of reasons:
1) Seaonality.
2) Seroprevalence.
3) Social distancing/masks.
4) Shots.
Quickly, “shots” will zoom up to overtake the other three, though seasonality matters a lot more than anyone is giving it credit for. By August, as I’ve noted before, the lockdown scammers will be searching far and wide for reasons to keep us all sequestered away from the world as daily case rates will be so low.