Optim

Ignore the pessimism: Covid vaccines are quietly prevailing. Nightmare scenarios involving deadly new variants are making us all too gloomy โ€“ but thereโ€™s a scientific case for optimism.

The press gets clicks and makes money from doom-mongering, and liberals are more than happy to sing the same tune. Itโ€™s sad to see but this constant focus on doom has little to do with reality.

It can be quite easy, reading the press, to believe that the pandemic will never end. Even when good news about vaccines started to arrive in the autumn, this grim narrative managed to harden. In the past month, you could read โ€œfive reasons that herd immunity is probably impossibleโ€, even with mass vaccination; breathless reports about yet-uncharacterised but potentially ruinous variants, such as the โ€œdouble mutantโ€ variant in India, or two concerning variants potentially swapping mutations and teaming up in a โ€œnightmare scenarioโ€ in California; get ready, some analysts said, for the โ€œpermanent pandemicโ€.

The contention that โ€œherd immunity is probably impossible, even with vaccinesโ€ was conventional expert wisdom a few months ago, though it was obviously wrong and delusional. So it doesnโ€™t get forgotten Iโ€™ve taken a few screenshots of that and other clearly unsound prognostications so I can rub it in their faces later on โ€” because of course itโ€™ll be memory-holed and then become a โ€œconspiracy theory,โ€ as is the way of things now.

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