Political Economy

Big Lunch

Chill Annoying, Political Economy

You know the inflation numbers are a lie when it’s right at $50 for two people to eat lunch at a lunch counter type place (not even a real sit-down restaurant). And yeah, sure, it’s California. But I go to a lot of other states and places and it’s nearly the same in all the others too.

Prices are mostly irrelevant to me, but damn that seems like a lot.

Cry Harder

Chill Political Economy

The H-1B visa program should be ended entirely. Its major purpose is to drive down wages of (mostly) tech workers and has nothing to do with talent. If this were not true, why would companies only post job ads in newspapers no one reads, or on the doors of offices of their campuses (rather than the internet)1?

It’s a scam, a fraud, and should not exist. I agree with Amanda Goodall, though — ending it will just mean more jobs sent overseas. To complement the elimination of the H-1B scam, any American company that sends a job overseas (or is doing work on American account overseas) should pay a 500% yearly tax on that job.

That would pretty much end that.

  1. This is done so they can claim they looked really really hard, but darnit, they just could not find an American for the role.

A Serv

Chill Political Economy

It’s better when it’s just said what’s happening. Service will get worse, of course.

Frigidaire

Chill Political Economy

The unemployment numbers are already pure fiction and it’s just going to get worse from here. We’re sliding into recession and then depression inevitably. If all the Capex from the AI bubble hadn’t occurred, we’d already be there.

Commercial Logic

Chill Political Economy

Why do stores and malls let so many storefronts stand empty for months or years? Wouldn’t having tenants bringing in SOME money be better than leaving the property to rot and generate zero rent?

It’s because commercial loans do not work like private mortgages. They refinance more frequently (every 5–10 years), and the value and loan terms are set by the property’s Net Operating Income (NOI) as well as the quality and length of leases. Loan covenants are also a factor. Many lenders require consent for below-market rents or very short terms.

As implied above, however, the overriding reason that commercial spaces sit empty is that locking in a low rent on a long lease can knock millions off the property value and jeopardize the next refinance. And since refis can be as frequent as every five years in CRE, this is not a trivial concern.

Inflations

Chill Annoying, Clowns, Political Economy

It’s not that there are no competent people overseas in the countries that typically receive offshored jobs. Of course there are. In fact, many of the best end up here as immigrants in the US.

But the competence level is certainly vastly different. In my experience the average Indian in India is about 1/4 to 1/8 as competent as the average American. At least in tech, though I’ve heard it’s similar in other fields. The average Filipino is maybe half as competent. And the average LATAM hire is maybe 60% as competent as an American.

That’s not great! Part of it is worse education, tons of credential inflation and concomitant lack of experience. Screening is also not nearly as competent or thorough when done overseas. That all leads to offshore teams fucking things up left and right while the few remaining onshore people spend long, long hours fixing it all. All to usually not even save money in the end.

But sure, tell me again how efficient business is.

Two Bads Don’t Make

Chill Political Economy, Politics

The job market is atrocious now and inflation is rising. That’s going to have some consequences politically and socially.

Overwhelm

Chill Political Economy, Politics

I don’t think Europe or really anyone else has an answer for their societies being invaded and overwhelmed by third world immigration waves (largely Islamic) with values averse to Western culture.

This will destroy the societies they invade, of course. And I think Western civilization is worth saving. Both for selfish reasons and because it’s a damn sight better than scrabbling around in the dirt with sticks that Islamic culture will lead to for the foreseeable future if allowed to fester.

Fascism doesn’t work but liberalism also does not work. It invites the infection in. So…what now?

Fee Fees

Chill Cool, Political Economy

Trump imposes $100K fee on H-1B visas in new immigration action

That’s awesome. H-1Bs are used to suppress American wages and so that the plutes can have an obeisant slave class of coolies1.

H-1Bs should be banned altogether, but that’s a good first step.

  1. Yes, I use this term deliberately and intentionally.

Choices/Consequences

Chill Political Economy

Extremely high energy costs and unable to complete with China. A bad, bad combination caused by terrible choices Germany made over the past couple of decades.