Political Economy

Shelved

Chill Annoying, Political Economy

Store shelves will start being empty in 3-5 weeks, depending on how much hoarding there is when people realize what’s happening.

Luckily most food that Americans consume is grown and packed in the US, so food shortages won’t be particularly bad. But everything else…well, that all comes from China. And it ain’t comin’ no more.

We’ve already prepped and are ready. Hope you all did too.

Sectorized

Chill Annoying, Clowns, Political Economy

The private sector isn’t efficient. It’s just better at marketing the illusion.

Dead on. The efficiency of private sector companies is a libertarian fucking myth. I was in the army for five years and yeah there were inefficiencies (mostly foisted on us by others), but we did far more with far less than any private sector company I worked for after that.

And that’s pretty typical. There’s just so, so much waste, corruption, graft and utter clownishness in private sector corps. It’s absurd to think most of them are at all efficient. It is simply false.

Calam Down

Chill Clowns, Evil, Political Economy

Most Americans alive today have not experienced an era of extended decline. I haven’t either, but was around people commonly as a kid who had struggled to survive through the Great Depression. I suspect the upcoming calamity will be one that most people are totally unequipped to deal with.

It’s hard to know specifics now, of course, but I expect the Trump Depression to last 8-ish years (though it could be as much as 20), at the peak to have about 40% unemployment and to result in a decrease in US GDP of 20-30% in real dollar terms.

And that’s the most likely but far from how bad it could get. Worst case could be even more horrifyingly terrible. The middle-bad case is locked in now; it’s coming, like it or not. (And no one should like it, not even the most MAGA-addled doofball.)

Weeks Away

Chill Clowns, Evil, Political Economy

The last boats without crippling tariffs from China are arriving. The countdown to shortages and higher prices has begun.

I cannot stress this enough: if there is something you think might want or need in the next few years and it’s not perishable, buy it now. There’s an extremely good chance you might not be able to obtain it in the future, or perhaps ever again in the worst case. Very best case, it’ll just cost vastly more.

We’ve already bought computers and related that is likely to last 10-ish years, enough food to last a few months if we’re fairly austere 1, some water and other supplies. We probably still should buy some batteries and related things, but what’s left is minor. We own our own home free and clear (no lien) so it’s nearly impossible to dislodge us as long as we keep paying taxes. And we live in a warm enough climate that we could survive the winter even without reliable heat and/or electricity.

We’re about as ready as we can be without going full prepper-in-the-mountains. Which we have no plans to do.

A very bad few years lie ahead of us. I hope everyone is doing the best they can to avoid the refrigerator box by the side of the road, which will be the fate of all too many Americans.

  1. More than this is fairly pointless in reality.

Future Decline

Chill Evil, Political Economy, Prediction

US economy shrinks in first quarter of Trump 2.0 amid sweeping tariffs.

This is the beginning of the beginning of the depression that is on the way. This quarter of economic decline didn’t occur because of tariffs, but rather due to business uncertainty. That is actually worse than tariffs and as long as Trump makes random unaccountable decisions the economy will only get worse.

Too much is up in the air at the moment for more substantive claims, but we are definitely going to be in a depression for a while. The best case scenario is 2-3 years. I give this a 30% chance. The most likely case is 5-8 years of depression followed by low growth. I give this one a 60% chance. And the apocalyptic case is complete destruction of the economy with further Trump-like figures succeeding him. This would perpetuate depression conditions (even if there is some intermittent growth occurring due to how great was the decline) for 20+ years. This of course has a 10% chance of happening.

We are living in terrible times. They’re already here. Most people just don’t know it yet because they can’t see that the plane has already lost all power and the mountains loom in the distance.

Tsunami Inbound

Chill Clowns, Evil, Political Economy

This is going to be worse than I initially thought, so I bought more crap than I had originally planned. It’s the last chance now and in the next week or two.

Then, many many things will be vastly more expensive or impossible to get at all. It’s coming. Be warned. Or don’t. Either way, I’ll avoid doing the stupid. Maybe we should’ve immigrated, but too late for that now.

We’re here and are as ready as we can be.

Later On

Chill Political Economy

If all y’all want to buy something, do it now. Soon it will be unavailable or vastly more expensive. And by “something,” I mean nearly everything. Economy is about to fly apart like a washing machine on spin cycle with a brick thrown in it.

Do it now or you might only be able to get it again in 5-10 years. Maybe. If you’re lucky.

Hear me now and believe me later. Or don’t. I ain’t care.

Rupt Bank

Chill Evil, Political Economy

That is the most likely result, yes. Unsure if deliberate or idiocy. Either way, the result is the same: poverty and immiseration for the American people.

Riser

Chill Evil, Political Economy

I have a tool that tracks prices on Amazon over time. It embeds a graph right on the page for me so it’s very easy to see. Any imported item you can observe the price rise as tariff expectations occur and then tariffs actually hit:

This is just a decorative item, but this huge price increase is and will be affecting everything else as well. Since January, the product has increased from $120 to more than $180. That happening across most of the economy is going to be very bad for everyone.