China is also paying the right-wing media and some of the more left-wing too. More to the righties, though. But Russia has been throwing absolutely huge amounts of cash at the republicans lately.
Politics
(P)Resident Evil
There are two things going on here. The article mentions one of them at the very end, but doesn’t really emphasize it. The first is that the media is beholden to the “both sides” narrative even when it makes absolutely no sense.
Imagine that someone powerful said, “I want to kill everyone with blonde hair, all 30 million of them. No mercy, no survivors.” And someone from the opposition said, “This is morally wrong and ethically unconscionable. I will do my best to prevent this genocidal atrocity.” The media would fact-check this into:
“The President says he wants to kill all the blonde people, but perhaps he was talking about the type of chocolate-free brownie. Since he hasn’t actually killed anyone, who can say? His opponent claimed that he was ‘genocidal’ and no blond person has been killed yet, so this is false.”
This absurd both-sidesing is inherent to our terrible journalism culture but there is also something else going on here. Even with Harris in the race, Trump still has a ~45% chance of winning it all. If he does win, these journos don’t want to be on the “enemies” list. And there will be an enemies list this time around for sure if Trump does take the prize.
Thus, part of this kowtowing is a very human, very understandable motivation. It is simply fear.
Poll Stacks
The reality is that the most likely outcome is that election will be so close all the polls are and will be nearly worthless. The “experts” will lie about them obviously after the fact as is their wont of late, but that’s just background noise these days.
The inevitable coup has a 50/50 chance of success following that if Harris wins.
Incomp
I understand Trump voters. Do I also have to empathize with them?
No. I certainly do not empathize with them. Trump is an erratic, senile, spiteful, incompetent coup plotter. It doesn’t matter that I actually agreed with many of his policies, as much as they could be called policies given their poor real-world implementation.
Competence matters. And Trump is the opposite of competent. And a coup matters more. That many voters want to vote for someone after he has shown all of us exactly who he is says that those people deserve the pain they will cause themselves if he wins. Thus, no empathy from me. There is enough evidence to know what you’re getting and that you still want it says all I need to hear.
Inherent in Kristof’s argument, too, is the kind of moral relativism that often afflicts the left — this idea that the disadvantaged are somehow less responsible for their moral decisions than the rest of us are.
A lot of the left does enjoy pretending everyone who is not them is like a child. It’s annoying, it’s incorrect, and it does their side of the argument no favors. It breeds resentment in your opponents and causes their underestimation.
Our elites like Kristof are pretty bad. But the average dumbass who supports Trump after his demonstrated incompetence and his coup attempt is even worse.
Dem Science
Republicans have rejected nearly all of science; Dems only reject various inconvenient biological facts. That is a huge difference, though both are extremely annoying.
Cereb
It’s striking how dense more-cerebral people like Kelsey can be sometimes. Most people are not statisticians and have no coherent way of thinking about polls or how the numbers are determined post-polling. Also, correctly, the hoi polloi recognize that no claim like this is made without a political dimension. Therefore depsite being statistically nearly-indistinguishable, Trump at 51% vs. Harris at 51% is also a potentially political claim about the future.
Regular people recognize this. People like Kelsey struggle with it as they tell us that philosophy is irrelevant while bombarding us with spreadsheets and PowerPoint slides.
Stand In the Place
Even though I was already cynical politically and jaded, Obama burned me badly. I’ll never be excited about a candidate again. I am absolutely certain Harris will break most of her promises and will most likely be a middling president. In our system, that’s pretty much guaranteed.
But I believe she will stand against China and will not be a senile, chuntering old man obsessing over past slights and grievances while America burns. And that is far and away enough to get my support.
Deter
I very much hope we do not go to war with China, to be clear. It would be disastrous for both countries and for the world. We should do all that is reasonable to prevent this outcome that still protects our own valid interests while not leaving our allies to hang1. But part of that prevention is putting in place a strong deterrent
, i.e., a military with enough resources to plausibly fight and win a protracted war if needed. In the realpolitik of nations — which resemble corporations in their amorality — that ability to be a lethal snake in the grass is the only deterrent that matters. Therefore, at least in this case, being prepared for that war is an excellent way to prevent it ever occurring.
Harris seems to understand this, at least. It remains to be seen if she acts on her understanding if she wins and the inevitable coup is not successful. If there is a coup in 2024 or 2025 that ousts her and installs Trump, I’d expect the war with China to occur during the middle of his term as he’ll be even more weak and incompetent than his first already-dismal effort. And the nation will be in chaos. This will be all China needs to do what they are already planning to do. They absolutely will not ignore that opportunity. And no, we will not be able to avoid that war even with Trump at the helm, but what we will be is utterly unprepared to fight it.
One of the main reasons I support Harris is that attempting to forestall the war with China is something she’ll be better at in every way possible. And right now preventing that war while readying ourselves to fight it is the most important issue we face. It’s far more important than climate change, disease prevention, crime or anything else that most people seem obsessed with. But it’s been a long time since a war had any real effect on the US so people have forgotten.
There is no perfect candidate. There is no truly just war. But we are coming up on some pretty hard years ahead. We need to prepare for them, whatever they might bring. Trump will be completely incompetent at the project of averting war or prosecuting it in the highly-likely event Ares does point his blood-stained finger at us once again. This storm is coming whether we like it or not. The only thing to do now is get ready as best we can.
Off the Coup’f
I’m not sure how much I trust any polls these days, no matter what the “experts” say. But this is a good sign. Kamala needs to win by a lot to head off the coup. A large victory will take the wind out of its sails even if it is not outright prevented.
Response
At the time, I thought shooting all the people who invaded the Capitol Building on January 6 was the correct response1. In prior times, it’s what would’ve been done to a hostile force attempting to violently take over the most important government building in the country. That level of fierce response would’ve been justified and unquestionably correct2.
But I was wrong about that. Allowing the mob to beclown themselves as they did was far better. There wasn’t a martyrdom event, therefore. They just looked like fools and dimwits, dressed in doofy clothes, stealing laptops and putting their feet up on desks. My way, though the “correct” response, would’ve been hugely counterproductive to the republic as a whole. The Jan. 6 rioters lost vastly more support with how stupid they looked and that was probably worth allowing them all not to get peppered with rounds from MP5s.
So I was wrong. It does happen, though not often. And I admit it when I am.
Ready Steady
Trump supporters focus on regaining power—no matter how Americans vote.
Gettin’ ready to do the coup. I hope there are others preparing for the necessary counter-coup. This one will be far more organized than the January 6 effort was; no horned trailer park shamans and brain-damaged mobs.
Hopeless
I’m still angry about the $50 I donated to the Obama campaign in 2008. What a waste of money. It would’ve been better to set that money on fire. Yes, I know it was only $501. But the symbolism matters given how terrible a president Obama ended up being.
One Two
My hope is that Harris will trump Trump by enough of a margin that the highly-likely coup attempt will fizzle. We have more important shit to do than defend the republic against the divorced dads/incel brigade. We must get ready for probable war with China and likely war with Russia while dealing with climate change.
And that is quite enough, thank you.
Coupcoup People
I say 75% chance of a coup attempt in 2024/2025, and 30% chance of a successful coup by the fascist Republicans1 (not all the Republicans are fascist, but nearly all the fascists are Republicans).
It’ll be better-organized and run than the pitiful January 6 effort. I hope there are some back-end preparations brewing. I don’t expect civil war or anything like that, but perhaps some scattered violence.
Remove Bozo Urges
While it is indeed very fun to make fun of how badly both of them are fucking up their entire societies, alas I must begrudgingly agree with this tweet.
Canada, Europe, get with the damn program here. We need you to not be clowns, mmmkay?