Kursk: Russia says it halted a Ukrainian incursion into its territory. Evidence suggests it hasn’t.

Oh, I have no doubt that Russia halted the advance of Ukrainian troops. This was a risky, bold move against a foe with a lot of resources and no concern with human life. But I doubt that they’ve driven the Ukrainians back yet.

The whole point of this is to make the Russians feel vulnerable to attack. Anyone who went on this raid knew it was a suicide mission and most of them will stay in place until they’re dead. Against a determined enemy operating with that mindset, the Russians will find them to be hard to kill and hard to displace.

Was this worth it for the Ukrainian side? If I were a commander, I don’t think I would’ve done it. Losing hundreds of people in something doomed to fail when soldiers are already in short supply seems not a great idea. But I’m also not that PR-focused. And the PR side of demonstrating that Russia cannot operate with impunity and is itself vulnerable is worth something — both as an advertisement for more aid and to sow doubt in Russia itself.