I said this on May 12, 2020. I love love love having receipts.

The second wave will be larger than the first and crest about December-January. Nothing else seems likely or possible, given how we’ve flubbed it all and show no sings of correcting anything. And the second wave will be worse numerically and economically than the first, hitting as it will in fall and winter.

So much for those credentialed experts. They have been wrong, mostly, and I have been right.

What’s the leading theory for why covid cases and hospitalizations are in free fall in the US right now?

— Tom Gara (@tomgara) February 6, 2021

Some contribution of herd immunity, holiday travel being behind us, and better masks/masking observance in many places. Probably around 30% of the US has had Covid now, and that certainly contributes. Add that to people who have gotten one shot of the vaccine, and that’s somewhere around 40% who have some degree of immunity.

When we hit around 50% vaccination rate, cases will fall dramatically and everyone will be shocked. But you shouldn’t be because I am writing it now. And I will be right again.