Lockdowns are very harmful, of course, but the question is if they are more harmful than the alternative? That is, a pandemic burning out of control and overwhelming hospital systems, and do lockdowns adequately control that while preserving any sort of society?

In that light, while it’s clear lockdowns do work, as their length and restrictiveness continues the utility calculation begins to look less favorable to that method.

I don’t presume to know where the dividing line is exactly, but places that had year-long lockdowns and such are going to see some real long-term mental health consequences from that, and for many those consequences are going to be very bad indeed.