Box Of

People who think Harris saw the questions before the debate, you are fucking idiots. Those are the same questions they ask during every presidential debate and have since rocks were new.

What are you, 11?

There’s actually quite a lot to criticize Harris on but none of the conservatives seem to have the intellectual capacity to do so.

A quarter of Republicans think Trump should seize power even if he loses.

Germany extends temporary controls to all its land borders.

Kamala Harris Won Debate by a Knockoutโ€”but Her Fight Is Far From Over.

Icons of Aviation History: Lockheed Constellation.

Googleโ€™s AI Will Help Decide Whether Unemployed Workers Get Benefits. Well that’s some deep evil.

Samsung Electronics plans global job cuts of up to 30% in some divisions.

It is about race. Sometimes the non-PC answer is the right one.

Games industry layoffs not the result of corporate greed and those affected should “drive an Uber”, says ex-Sony president. “Well, you know, that’s life.”

Giant bubbles on the surface of a nearby star preview the fate of our sun.

Fortress Europe keeps cruelly raising its walls against the global south. Europe doing something toward its own survival for once.

Polaris Dawn Astronauts Reach Record High Orbit Above Earth.

Republican Science Denial Has Nasty Real-World Consequences.

Sterilizations Among Women Rose After Roe Was Overturned, Study Finds.

The Complicated Rise of the Right in Germanyโ€™s Left-Behind Places.

It Was a Time

It was a lab leak, of course. But wasn’t it just wild in Feb-Mar 2020? I had people that are now mask-crazy insisting masks don’t work and were racist (??), and that not shaking hands was also racist, and that buying extra food was absurd because “nothing is going to happen.” All of that has been memory-holed and is “conspiracy theory” now. But it all happened.

What a time!

Claims and Games

Trump’s or Harris’s chance of winning the presidency is 100% or 0%. The percentage that you’re actually measuring in a one-off contest that is not repeatable is the confidence in your model. So if you say, “Trump has a 55% chance of winning,” you’re really making a claim that you think your model has a 55% chance of being correct in that direction. These are two different things!

Yes, I know it’s pedantic, but in a single unique event what you’re confident about and what your actual claim is matters.

Take that business of balanced employment of forces. Admiral Doenitz, as you know, has, since becoming a captive of the Allies, written an essay on “The War at Sea” from the German point of view of World War II. He points out that the German submarines in the first year of the war were ten times as effective per day at sea as they were in the second year of the war. One therefore gathers (though he doesn’t make this point) that if Germany had started the war with some 300 submarines instead of 60, they would have stood a very good chance of winning the war at sea, and therefore the whole war-and relatively early. Now, why didn’t they have those 300 submarines? Well, one reason is that they were enamored of the idea of a balanced force and devoted a good deal of their naval resources (which had to be limited in view of their ground and air force needs) to surface vessels, including battleships. That gave them what according to a static conception was a balanced force. The trouble was that it was highly unbalanced for a war with Great Britain. This is only one example of where the word “balance” denotes no ready answer. The balance must always be thought of in terms of strategic needs against the particular prospective enemy.

Bernard Brodie, “Characteristics of a Sound Strategy” (1952)

NASA will proceed with final preps to launch Europa Clipper next month.

How โ€˜Analog Privilegeโ€™ Spares Elites From The Downsides Of Flawed AI Decision-Making Systems.

Polaris Dawn takes to the skies, setting the stage for a daring private spacewalk.

Indian migrants drive surge in northern U.S. illegal border crossings.

Datacenters to emit 3x more carbon dioxide because of generative AI.

Dreich.

Chinaโ€™s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage.

Fertility and Labor Supply Responses to Child Allowances: The Introduction of Means-Tested Benefits in France.

Our history is a battle against the microbes: we lost terribly before science, public health, and vaccines allowed us to protect ourselves.

Seeing plants anew. The stunningly complex behaviour of plants has led to a new way of thinking about our world. Many plants are smarter than many people.

Climate Catastrophism Leads to Illiberalism but Doesnโ€™t Solve the Problem.

U.S. Maritime Policy Needs an Overhaul.