I haven’t yet read this Sarah Kendzior piece, but something I was thinking about today: when a large number of people say that “it can’t happen here,” that means the event is more likely than it was when no one was making that declaration.

The reason for this is that if large numbers of people are claiming that something cannot happen — especially something that has occurred in history many times before — it is in the air, is something that millions are thinking about as a possibility and that society is lurching towards already.

I use a similar trading strategy in the market, btw, and I am rarely wrong.

So the “can’t happen here” narrative is more of a declaration of values, of position-staking, and the actual event is more likely (though by no means certain, or even in many cases probable) than when no one at all is discussing it.

Now I should actually go and read the piece.